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  泸州老窖[000568] 003
☆财务分析☆   ◇港澳资讯000568   更新日期:2009-07-30◇   灵通V4.0
★本栏包括【1.财务指标】、【2.异动分析】、【3.环比分析】、【4.财务预警】
【1.财务指标】
【历年简要财务指标】
┌─────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|每股指标(单位)    |2009-06-30|2009-03-31|2008-12-31|2008-09-30|
├─────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|每股收益(元)      |0.6110    |0.3800    |0.9100    |0.7800    |
|每股收益扣除(元)  |0.6115    |0.3800    |0.9000    |0.7800    |
|每股净资产(元)    |2.4600    |2.8800    |2.4900    |2.3700    |
|调整后每          |          |          |          |          |
|股净资产(元)      |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|净资产收益率(%)   |24.8800   |13.2500   |36.4000   |32.8600   |
|每股资本公积金(元)|0.2515    |0.2515    |0.2515    |0.2542    |
|每股未分配利润(元)|0.8376    |1.2577    |0.8765    |0.8342    |
|主营业务收入(万元)|220366.07 |128379.80 |379837.87 |307688.55 |
|主营业务利润(万元)|-         |-         |-         |-         |
|投资收益(万元)    |16029.75  |8674.29   |17190.51  |16395.27  |
|净利润(万元)      |85194.05  |53138.58  |126598.79 |108486.56 |
└─────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

┌─────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|每股指标(单位)    |2008-06-30|2008-03-31|2007-12-31|2007-09-30|
├─────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|每股收益(元)      |0.5318    |0.5880    |0.8875    |0.4700    |
|每股收益扣除(元)  |0.5300    |0.5734    |0.7840    |0.4700    |
|每股净资产(元)    |2.1200    |3.6900    |3.1000    |2.6800    |
|调整后每          |          |          |          |          |
|股净资产(元)      |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|净资产收益率(%)   |25.0700   |15.9400   |28.6000   |17.4800   |
|每股资本公积金(元)|0.2542    |0.8067    |0.8067    |0.8023    |
|每股未分配利润(元)|0.5879    |1.4381    |0.8497    |0.5156    |
|主营业务收入(万元)|211024.47 |126676.35 |292685.45 |199767.68 |
|主营业务利润(万元)|-         |-         |-         |-         |
|投资收益(万元)    |12607.60  |9566.23   |15878.98  |79.27     |
|净利润(万元)      |74149.34  |51273.75  |77336.71  |40869.62  |
└─────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【每股指标】
┌─────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|财务指标(单位)    |2009-06-30|2008-12-31|2007-12-31|2006-12-31|
├─────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|审计意见          |          |标准无保留|标准无保留|标准无保留|
|                  |          |意见      |意见      |意见      |
|每股收益(元)      |0.6110    |0.9100    |0.8875    |0.3691    |
|每股收益扣除(元)  |0.6115    |0.9000    |0.7840    |0.3495    |
|每股净资产(元)    |2.4600    |2.4900    |3.1000    |2.5600    |
|每股资本公积金(元)|0.2515    |0.2515    |0.8067    |0.8023    |
|每股未分配利润(元)|0.8376    |0.8765    |0.8497    |0.4015    |
|每股经营活动      |          |          |          |          |
|现金流量(元)      |0.5440    |0.5838    |1.4101    |0.4096    |
|每股现金流量(元)  |0.0238    |0.1860    |-0.3828   |0.5516    |
└─────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【利润构成与盈利能力】
┌─────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|财务指标(单位)    |2009-06-30|2008-12-31|2007-12-31|2006-12-31|
├─────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|主营业务收入(万元)|220366.07 |379837.87 |292685.45 |192621.45 |
|主营业务利润(万元)|-         |-         |-         |-         |
|经营费用(万元)    |25333.91  |51278.85  |35241.23  |29441.87  |
|管理费用(万元)    |11245.99  |22730.22  |16780.43  |13364.59  |
|财务费用(万元)    |133.81    |220.64    |1392.56   |1085.95   |
|三项费用增长率(%) |6.41      |38.96     |21.69     |-12.34    |
|营业利润(万元)    |109394.28 |167622.90 |106263.02 |49275.79  |
|投资收益(万元)    |16029.75  |17190.51  |15878.98  |-612.96   |
|补贴收入(万元)    |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|营业外收支        |          |          |          |          |
|净额(万元)        |-98.43    |-2267.26  |69.60     |-93.19    |
|利润总额(万元)    |109295.85 |165355.64 |106332.63 |49182.60  |
|所得税(万元)      |23673.93  |38651.82  |29148.37  |16976.33  |
|净利润(万元)      |85194.05  |126598.79 |77336.71  |32256.64  |
|销售毛利率(%)     |64.53     |66.07     |56.93     |56.35     |
|主营业务利润率(%) |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|净资产收益率(%)   |24.88     |36.40     |28.60     |14.45     |
└─────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【经营与发展能力】
┌─────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|财务指标(单位)    |2009-06-30|2008-12-31|2007-12-31|2006-12-31|
├─────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|存货周转率(%)     |0.69      |1.06      |1.02      |0.70      |
|应收账款周转率(%) |54.90     |82.28     |55.11     |54.12     |
|总资产周转率(%)   |0.43      |0.79      |0.74      |0.63      |
|主营业务收        |          |          |          |          |
|入增长率(%)       |4.43      |29.78     |51.95     |32.24     |
|营业利润增长率(%) |8.80      |57.74     |115.65    |224.33    |
|税后利润增长率(%) |14.90     |63.70     |139.75    |598.48    |
|净资产增长率(%)   |15.75     |28.61     |21.15     |45.05     |
|总资产增长率(%)   |24.90     |13.38     |29.90     |30.48     |
└─────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【资产与负债】
┌────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|每股指标(单位)  |2009-06-30|2008-12-31|2007-12-31|2006-12-31|
├────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|资产总额(万元)  |512405.44 |509306.20 |449186.08 |345796.43 |
|负债总额(万元)  |167853.29 |160023.88 |178109.56 |121319.21 |
|流动负债(万元)  |167692.69 |159863.28 |177879.57 |120673.12 |
|长期负债(万元)  |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|货币资金(万元)  |73694.32  |70363.79  |44430.82  |77795.79  |
|应收帐款(万元)  |5204.21   |2823.18   |6410.01   |4212.18   |
|其他应收款(万元)|6925.79   |2098.40   |2911.42   |2901.06   |
|坏帐准备(万元)  |-         |-         |-         |-         |
|股东权益(万元)  |342374.06 |347805.58 |270438.12 |223220.36 |
|资产负债率(%)   |32.7579   |31.4199   |39.6516   |35.0839   |
|股东权益比率(%) |66.8170   |68.2900   |60.2062   |64.5525   |
|流动比率(%)     |1.4268    |1.5838    |1.4086    |2.0011    |
|速动比率(%)     |0.7899    |0.8403    |0.7119    |0.9846    |
└────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【现金流量】
┌────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
|财务指标(单位)  |2009-06-30|2008-12-31|2007-12-31|2006-12-31|
├────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|销售商品收到    |          |          |          |          |
|的现金(万元)    |244956.27 |441544.25 |329198.25 |217804.48 |
|经营活动现金    |          |          |          |          |
|净流量(万元)    |75857.73  |81397.93  |122882.96 |35697.94  |
|现金净流量(万元)|3330.53   |25932.97  |-33364.96 |48074.10  |
|经营活动现金净  |          |          |          |          |
|流量增长率(%)   |68.60     |-33.75    |244.22    |58.41     |
|销售商品收到现金|          |          |          |          |
|与主营收入比(%) |111.1588  |116.2455  |112.4751  |113.0738  |
|经营活动现金流量|          |          |          |          |
|与净利润比(%)   |88.5961   |64.2427   |159.2073  |-         |
|现金净流量与    |          |          |          |          |
|净利润比(%)     |3.8898    |20.4674   |-43.2277  |-         |
|投资活动的现    |          |          |          |          |
|金净流量(万元)  |-5595.79  |-6734.43  |-125569.75|-12004.49 |
|筹资活动的现    |          |          |          |          |
|金净流量(万元)  |-66931.41 |-48691.68 |-30649.46 |24380.65  |
└────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

【2.异动分析】
【异动财务指标】
┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬──────┐
|财务指标(单位)      |2009-06-30    |2008-06-30    |变动幅度(%) |
├──────────┼───────┼───────┼──────┤
|货币资金(万元)      |73694.32      |42936.55      |71.64       |
|应收票据(万元)      |34880.51      |6762.32       |415.81      |
|预付账款(万元)      |11756.04      |6225.24       |88.84       |
|应付股利(万元)      |19938.84      |458.64        |4247.38     |
|经营活动产生的现金  |              |              |            |
|现金流量净额(万元)  |75857.73      |44990.82      |68.61       |
|收回投资所          |              |              |            |
|收到的现金(万元)    |-             |6544.52       |-100.00     |
|投资现金流入        |              |              |            |
|小计(万元)          |-             |6580.62       |-100.00     |
|投资活动产生的      |              |              |            |
|现金流量净额(万元)  |-5595.79      |304.91        |-1935.24    |
|(筹资)现金流入      |              |              |            |
|小计(万元)          |12579.13      |2050.14       |513.57      |
|(筹资)现金流出      |              |              |            |
|小计(万元)          |79510.54      |48806.81      |62.91       |
|加:存货的减少      |              |              |            |
|(减:增加)(万元)    |12065.14      |5498.63       |119.42      |
|(附注)经营活动产生的|              |              |            |
|现金流量净额(万元)  |75857.73      |44990.82      |68.61       |
|现金期末余额(万元)  |73694.32      |42936.55      |71.64       |
|减:现金期初余额(万元|70363.79      |44430.82      |58.37       |
└──────────┴───────┴───────┴──────┘

【3.环比分析】
【单季度财务分析】
┌─────────────────────────────────┐
|                              2008年                              |
├───────┬──────┬─────┬──────┬─────┤
|              |  主营收入  |占年度比重|  净利润    |占年度比重|
|              |   (万元)   |   (%)   |  (万元)    |   (%)   |
├───────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼─────┤
|第一季度      |   126676.35|     33.35|    51273.75|     40.50|
|第二季度      |    84346.13|     22.21|    22875.58|     18.07|
|第三季度      |    96666.08|     25.45|    34337.23|     27.12|
|第四季度      |    72149.33|     18.99|    18112.23|     14.31|
└───────┴──────┴─────┴──────┴─────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────┐
|                              2007年                              |
├───────┬──────┬─────┬──────┬─────┤
|              |  主营收入  |占年度比重|  净利润    |占年度比重|
|              |   (万元)   |   (%)   |  (万元)    |   (%)   |
├───────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼─────┤
|第一季度      |    68031.30|     23.24|    14177.06|     18.33|
|第二季度      |    61369.90|     20.97|    11239.09|     14.53|
|第三季度      |    70366.48|     24.04|    15453.47|     19.98|
|第四季度      |    92917.77|     31.75|    36467.09|     47.15|
└───────┴──────┴─────┴──────┴─────┘

【4.财务预警】
【Z值预警】
截至日期:2009-06-30
┌───────────┬──────┬─────┬──────┐
| 指标名称             |   指标值   |    Z值   |   警度     |
├───────────┼──────┼─────┼──────┤
|净营运资金/资产总计   |      0.1396|          |            |
|留存收益/资产总计     |      0.3276|          |            |
|息税前利润/资产总计   |      0.4271|    3.4198|    无警    |
|股东权益合计/负债合计 |      2.0397|          |            |
|主营业务收入/资产总计 |      0.8601|          |            |
└───────────┴──────┴─────┴──────┘

【财务风险综合指数预警】
┌───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┐
| 名称                 |      2004|      2003|      2002|      2001|
├───────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┤
|经营预警                                                              |
├───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┤
|经营性现金盈利率      |     -0.63|     -0.96|     -0.42|     -0.84|
|总资产现金回收率      |      0.43|      0.06|     -3.37|      0.71|
|净利润率              |     -0.47|     -0.49|     -0.59|      0.14|
|应收帐款              |      0.62|      0.39|      0.10|     -0.08|
|经营预警综合指数      |     -0.03|     -0.29|     -1.23|     -0.03|
├───────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|投资预警                                                              |
├───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┤
|权益现金报酬率        |     -0.62|     -0.97|     -1.79|     -0.79|
|现金盈利留存率        |     -0.48|     -0.10|     -2.00|     -0.17|
|留存盈利              |     -0.77|     -0.49|     -0.59|      0.14|
|净资产收益率          |     48.33|     45.83|     33.33|    110.90|
|投资预警综合指数      |      9.18|      8.75|      5.41|     21.92|
├───────────┼─────┼─────┼─────┼─────┤
|筹资预警                                                              |
├───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┤
|权益乘数              |      0.44|      0.36|      0.38|      0.40|
|经营现金流入利息支出比|      0.44|      0.36|      0.38|      0.40|
|支付现金股利          |      0.98|     -0.57|      2.04|      1.00|
|银行贷款率            |      0.85|          |          |          |
|筹资预警综合指数      |      0.67|      0.50|      0.55|      0.60|
├───────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┤
├───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┤
|财务预警综合指数fewci |      2.96|      2.52|      1.38|      6.73|
├───────────┬─────┬─────┬─────┬─────┤
|警度                  |   轻警   |   轻警   |   轻警   |   轻警   |
└───────────┴─────┴─────┴─────┴─────┘

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